"Power Shifts and Global Tensions: What Zeihan’s July Digest Reveals"
On July 22, 2025, Peter Zeihan’s daily digest offered a panoramic view of a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. -Rafael Benavente
Title: Geopolitics in Flux: What July 22, 2025 Tells Us About the New World Disorder
By Rafael Benavente
On July 22, 2025, Peter Zeihan’s daily digest offered a panoramic view of a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. From humanitarian crises and trade maneuvering to high-stakes diplomacy and military recalibration, today’s headlines reflect a world undergoing seismic transformation. Below, I unpack the day's most pressing developments, offering insight into where we are—and where we may be headed.
🇵🇭 U.S.-Philippines: Trade, Tariffs, and Strategic Balancing
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s visit to President Trump at the White House highlights the Philippines’ gamble on its alliance with Washington. Marcos seeks to secure a favorable trade deal before the looming August 1 tariff hike, hoping to escape the 20% duties now threatening Philippine exports.
With Trump having already inked deals with Vietnam and Indonesia, the Philippines faces pressure to align strategically while navigating a tough economic bargain. The subtext? The U.S. is recalibrating its regional alliances not just for trade—but as leverage against China's growing influence.
🇺🇸 U.S. Withdraws from UNESCO (Again)
Washington's renewed exit from UNESCO underscores a deepening ideological divide between the U.S. and multilateral bodies. Citing the agency's "anti-Israel bias," the State Department voiced frustration over UNESCO's recognition of Palestine and broader cultural policies. This retreat marks a symbolic—but potent—step back from global cultural diplomacy.
🇸🇾 Syria: Fragile Peace, Lingering Violence
A Syrian government probe found over 1,400 people killed in sectarian violence in March, the first major eruption after Assad’s fall. Though officials claim no military leaders sanctioned the atrocities, the investigation's findings suggest a volatile post-Assad power vacuum.
Meanwhile, Trump has privately objected to recent Israeli strikes in Syria—revealing daylight between traditional allies on how to manage the region’s aftermath.
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Jet Crash Tragedy
A devastating F-7 fighter jet crash in Dhaka claimed 27 lives, including 25 children. This tragic accident exposes risks of aging military infrastructure and highlights the human toll of defense modernization delays across the developing world.
🇨🇳 China’s Mega Dam: Power at What Price?
China has broken ground on a $170B hydroelectric mega-dam on the Tibetan Plateau. Billed as the world’s most powerful hydropower project, it’s raising serious concerns downstream in India and Bangladesh. Water security, sediment flow, and regional tensions are now interwoven with Beijing’s energy ambitions.
It’s a literal dam of geopolitical consequence—and a metaphor for China’s upstream approach to regional dominance.
🇮🇷 Iran: From Ruin to Nationalist Revival
Following its bruising war with Israel and the U.S., Iran finds itself both devastated and galvanized. The regime is leaning into a fusion of Shiite theocracy and Persian nationalism, hoping to transform military humiliation into political unity.
With Iran now open to nuclear talks with the E3 (UK, France, Germany), diplomacy is inching forward—but against a backdrop of a nation still reeling from war.
🇺🇦 Ukraine: Democracy Under Duress
In Kyiv, lawmakers just clipped the wings of two key anti-corruption agencies—sparking concern among Western allies. With EU accession and billions in aid at stake, the move is viewed as a troubling step backward. Simultaneously, Germany has pledged five Patriot systems to Ukraine, reaffirming Europe’s military support amid mounting internal political dysfunction.
🇮🇱 Gaza: Famine, Collapse, and Growing Criticism
The humanitarian collapse in Gaza has reached an inflection point. The Norwegian Refugee Council confirmed it has nothing left to distribute. UNRWA staff are fainting from hunger. And in an uncharacteristically forceful statement, Belgium’s King Philippe denounced the situation as a “disgrace to humanity.”
Israel, meanwhile, delivered aid to Syria’s Druze minority in Sweida, as if to counterbalance the optics in Gaza. The contrast is striking—and deliberate.
🇨🇳 Xi Jinping: The Globe-Trotter Stays Home
Once famed for his travel diplomacy, Xi Jinping is retreating from the international stage. Skipping summits and avoiding foreign soil, China’s leader is sending a message: Beijing is now playing defense at home while recalibrating its outward posture. The symbolism is as important as the logistics.
🇺🇸 The U.S. Economy: Resilient, For Now
Despite tariff headwinds and global anxiety, the U.S. economy is showing unexpected strength. Consumer sentiment is rising, retail sales are up, and fears of stagflation have so far been unrealized. President Trump’s tariff gambits may not have triggered recession—yet—but the real test will come as trade wars escalate into August.
🇺🇸 Deep-Sea Mining and the New Mineral Gold Rush
In a pivot from climate rhetoric to raw power politics, Trump’s executive order on seabed mining is positioning the U.S. for a deep-sea race to extract EV battery metals. The strategy: counter China's mineral dominance. The cost? Environmental uncertainty and likely international friction.
🇯🇵 Japan: Election Shock Threatens Trade Talks
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition losses in Japan’s upper house election jeopardize his mandate just as Tokyo faces a trade deadline with Washington. If no deal is reached, a 25% tariff wall looms—a blow that could tip Japan’s export economy into recession. The clock is ticking.
🇫🇷 France: Farming Backlash Gains Momentum
A farm bill reintroducing a controversial pesticide and relaxing environmental rules has triggered the largest petition in French history. With over 1.3 million signatures, it’s a wake-up call for Macron’s administration—and a warning about the political power of environmental and ethical concerns.
🛡 Germany: Scrambling for Shelter
After decommissioning its Cold War-era air-raid shelters, Germany now finds itself urgently planning new ones. With only 580 remaining bunkers, Berlin is vulnerable in an era where NATO is once again facing existential questions. The message is clear: the world’s security assumptions are collapsing.
Final Thoughts: A Day in the Life of Global Disarray
From Syria to Gaza, from Brussels to Beijing, and from Manila to Washington, July 22, 2025 shows us that the post-pandemic, post-globalization world is anything but settled. Power is shifting, alliances are being redrawn, and human suffering remains a tragically recurring feature of geopolitics.
Peter Zeihan’s curated headlines act as a mirror—showing us the multipolar disorder that defines our age. And beneath each story is the unspoken truth: no nation is immune from the fallout.
About Peter Zeihan
If you’re not already following Peter Zeihan, you’re missing out on one of the sharpest minds in geopolitics today. His ability to decode complex global trends and connect the dots between trade, conflict, and strategy is unmatched. For more in-depth analysis and early access to his insights, support him on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/PeterZeihan