Goldman Says Yes, JPM Says Maybe: A Look at Fed Rate Cut Predictions

Goldman Says Yes, JPM Says Maybe: A Look at Fed Rate Cut Predictions

Here’s a fully structured outlook report on what major broker‑dealers and financial institutions are forecasting for the next six months—including the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, and 30‑year mortgage rates. My research covers recent public forecasts and market‑implied rates as of late July 2025. Relevant news citations are added for context.

Broker‑Dealer Number of Cuts in 2025 Cut in September 2025 Expected Fed Funds Rate by End‑Dec 2025
Goldman Sachs 3 cuts (Sept, Oct, Dec) ✅ Yes – first cut in September ~3.50%–3.75% (Reuters, marketinsights.citi.com, MarketWatch)
J.P. Morgan 2 cuts Possibly (likely October‑onward) ~3.75%–4.00% (Reuters, JPMorgan)
Citigroup ~5 cuts (up to 125 bps) Yes – starting by mid‑year (possibly June/Sept) ~3.00%–3.25% (MarketWatch, Reuters)
UBS Cuts totaling ~75–100 bps Likely two cuts, possibly starting in September ~3.50%–3.75% (Reuters)
Bankrate consensus (Greg McBride) 3 cuts Yes, first likely in September ~3.50%–3.75% (Bankrate)

1. Fed Funds Rate (Federal Target Rate)

Summary: Most broker‑dealer forecasts converge around 3.75–4.00% federal funds rate in six months (i.e. January–April 2026), down modestly from the current ~4.3%.

2. 10‑Year Treasury Yield

  • While explicit broker forecasts are less published, firm projections by Transamerica suggest the 10‑year yield remains close to current levels, ending around 4.50% by year-end 2025 US News Money+6Transamerica+6Barron's+6.
  • Bloomberg-type and market-implied projections show that yields have recently ticked up amid hawkish Fed commentary and persistent inflation concerns Barron's+1New York Post+1.
  • Fannie Mae / National Association of Home Builders estimate a 10‑year Treasury yield around 3.53% on average in 2025, though as of now yields are higher than that, so this may be optimistic Rocket Mortgage.

Summary: Best consensus range is 4.3% to 4.6% for the 10‑year Treasury in six months; Transamerica targets ~4.50%. Broker forecasts tend to cluster near this level.

3. 30‑Year Fixed Mortgage Rates (30‑Year FRM)

Summary: Rates are expected to be near 6.5% now, edging down modestly toward 6.2%–6.4% over the next six months.

🧾 Summary Table

Rate TypeCurrent Level6‑Month Forecast (Jan–Apr 2026)
Fed Funds Rate4.25%–4.50% (~4.33% effective)~3.75%–4.00%
10‑Year Treasury Yield~4.3%–4.5%~4.3%–4.6% (often ~4.5%)
30‑Year Mortgage Rate~6.70%~6.2%–6.4%

🔎 Commentary & Risks